Video
Patreon 74: What if History - Greenboy shells had been developed and deployed in time for Jutland.
Study Patreon 74: What if History - Greenboy shells had been developed and deployed in time for Jutland., a Dr. Alex Clarke video from 9 Mar 2023, with 59 time notes. Topics include Alternate History, Battle Of…
Time notes
- 3:09QuestionWould the Germans avoid a full fleet battle if British shells were working properly?AnswerQ&A
No. The Germans already assumed British shells worked, although heavier damage during the action could make them break off earlier.
- 5:08The Greenboy question begins with Jutland's real damageChapter
Set the alternate-history premise against the heavy but often overlooked damage that British fire inflicted on German ships at Jutland.
- 13:40How Seydlitz escaped Britain's night forcesNotable Point
Seydlitz's crew and British fears of torpedo attacks help explain how the badly damaged battlecruiser survived the journey home.
- 23:41Why Greenboy shells were differentChapter
Less sensitive shellite fillings, stronger projectiles, and improved caps were intended to carry an explosive charge through armour before it burst.
- 27:30Dreyer's shell trials and the eighteen-month development cycleNotable Point
The Greenboy programme required stricter angled-plate trials, new manufacturing standards, and time to distribute the improved ammunition.
- 29:34Why earlier shell reform required tighter quality controlChapter
Rapid fleet expansion and pressure to deliver ammunition competed with stricter testing, even as the Royal Navy invested in more accurate fire control.
- 33:28QuestionWhat is a good source on these British battleship fire-control systems?AnswerQ&A
British Battleships of World War One is recommended as the better volume for this subject.
- 38:00A damaged Goeben could reveal the shell problemChapter
Follow the proposed 1914 divergence: Goeben is damaged and forced into a Greek port, giving Britain evidence that its shells have failed against modern German armour.
- 39:56Why peacetime shell reform kept stallingNotable Point
See how obsolete plate trials, manufacturer-friendly conditions, staff turnover, and weak political incentives repeatedly blunted attempts to impose realistic shell testing.
- 48:56How authority over naval construction changed after the First World WarNotable Point
Changes in the authority of the Director of Naval Construction and Third Sea Lord offer one explanation for later procurement difficulties.
- 55:30The Royal Navy planned different shells for different rangesNotable Point
Learn why British doctrine expected high-explosive or CPC shells to blind and burn an enemy at long range before armour-piercing rounds were used at closer range.
- 1:02:38QuestionWhy couldn't the Austro-Hungarian fleet sortie to protect Goeben after she entered a Greek port?AnswerQ&A
It was too far away, faced an unfriendly neutral Italy and other Allied forces, and would not risk much of the fleet to save one German battlecruiser.
- 1:03:43QuestionWhat does CPC mean, and how does it differ from a ballistic cap?AnswerQ&A
CPC means common pointed capped, but the wider distinction is complicated by inconsistent period and secondary-source classifications.
- 1:06:55Goeben's loss reshapes Gallipoli and the Grand FleetNotable Point
Trace the wider consequences of preventing Goeben's Ottoman service: a different Dardanelles problem, altered support for Russia, and possibly another Queen Elizabeth-class ship at Jutland.
- 1:06:55Success against Goeben could alter Cradock's choices at CoronelNotable Point
Trace how avoiding Troubridge's historical disgrace might change the orders, reinforcements, and professional pressures surrounding Cradock before Coronel.
- 1:08:32Earlier shell reform could reshape training before Dogger BankNotable Point
See why demonstrated shell defects could push the battlecruiser force toward both higher firing volume and more disciplined accuracy before its first major North Sea clash.
- 1:13:47QuestionWould stopping Goeben allow Prince Louis of Battenberg to remain First Sea Lord?AnswerQ&A
Possibly, but not automatically. Fisher's campaign against him and the outcome at Coronel could still force Battenberg out.
- 1:16:15The shell crisis extended below the capital-ship gunsNotable Point
See why testing spread from 15-inch projectiles through 13.5-, 12-, 9.2-, 7.5-, and 6-inch ammunition instead of ending with the Queen Elizabeth class.
- 1:19:07How many heavy-gun ships could Britain bring to the alternate Jutland?Notable Point
Compare the proposed capital-ship strength by gun calibre and the reasons Dreadnought and Australia remain outside the alternate battle.
- 1:22:25QuestionDoes the commander receive more information in this version of Jutland?AnswerQ&A
No. The scenario keeps other historical conditions unchanged except where the existing divergence alters them.
- 1:25:25Queen Elizabeth could reinforce the Fifth Battle Squadron or become fleet flagshipNotable Point
An available Queen Elizabeth could join Evan-Thomas as a fifth fast battleship or become Jellicoe's flagship.
- 1:27:16Better shells do not repair Beatty's battlecruiser problemsChapter
See why visibility, target allocation, and signalling still leave the British battlecruisers exposed on the Run to the South.
- 1:29:24Engadine launches Jutland's shipborne air reconnaissanceNotable Point
Follow the pioneering attempt to launch an aircraft from the fleet to locate German light cruisers, and why reporting failures limited its effect.
- 1:38:01Francis Harvey prevents Lion's magazine explosionNotable Point
Watch the shell hit that nearly destroys Lion and Major Francis Harvey's order that prevents the flash fire from reaching Q magazine.
- 1:39:32Von der Tann becomes an early test of working shellsNotable Point
Compare the historical damage to Von der Tann with the likely effect of 15-inch and 13.5-inch shells that penetrate before bursting.
- 1:44:01QuestionCould enough improved shells be made to equip the Grand Fleet before Jutland?AnswerQ&A
Yes. Using the historical programme as a benchmark, an earlier discovery gives Britain enough time to replace ammunition across the fleet, rather than supplying only a few ships.
- 1:46:23Failed shell bursts spare Seydlitz and DerfflingerNotable Point
More destructive British hits could remove German battlecruisers before they contribute to later British losses, including Queen Mary's destruction.
- 1:50:08QuestionWhy would Britain replace the old shells instead of continuing to use its stocks?AnswerQ&A
Because their defects have been demonstrated. Existing stocks would be replaced once they were known to be ineffective.
- 1:52:49Defence approaches Wiesbaden and meets German heavy fireNotable Point
Wiesbaden's disablement draws ships into an encounter in which Hipper initially mistakes Defence for the German cruiser Rostock.
- 1:56:37Nestor's destroyers fight through the battlecruiser screenNotable Point
British and German destroyers fight around the battlecruisers before Nestor and Nomad are immobilised and overtaken by Scheer's battle line.
- 1:56:37Southampton reports the High Seas FleetNotable Point
Goodenough's reconnaissance gives Beatty and Jellicoe their first warning that Scheer's main battle fleet is at sea.
- 1:58:33The Fifth Battle Squadron could force Scheer to turn awayChapter
Accurate British 15-inch fire could turn existing hits on German battlecruisers and Markgraf into losses that force Scheer to withdraw early.
- 2:08:51Markgraf's flooding could slow the German retreatNotable Point
Hits that historically caused limited flooding become a possible sinking or scuttling problem when the shells penetrate and explode properly.
- 2:11:02QuestionWould the Admiral class become a better-armoured fast battleship after this version of Jutland?AnswerQ&A
Yes. The proposed ship is a roughly 28-knot, fully protected successor to the Queen Elizabeth class rather than a conventional battlecruiser.
- 2:14:10QuestionIf the Germans turned for home early, could the British force another battle before they reached the Jade?AnswerQ&A
Potentially. Fast survivors might escape, but crippled ships could slow the fleet enough for Jellicoe to catch it.
- 2:17:19QuestionHow many Admiral-class ships would be built in this counterfactual?AnswerQ&A
Possibly all four.
- 2:18:10Windy Corner and the crossing of the T become deadlierChapter
Earlier German losses could spare Invincible and Princess Royal, while effective shells make the Grand Fleet's later engagement more destructive.
- 2:18:26Working shells might keep HMS Defence clear of WiesbadenNotable Point
Destroying Wiesbaden outright could remove the reason for Defence to approach the position where German fire sank her.
- 2:24:00König faces effective shells from a different flagshipNotable Point
König survives several damaging British hits historically; the proposed Queen Elizabeth flagship combines a larger shell with reliable penetration and detonation.
- 2:30:19Shark fights four German torpedo boatsNotable Point
Shark's isolated fight against four German torpedo boats earns Loftus Jones the Victoria Cross and illustrates the navy's aggressive destroyer ethos.
- 2:38:18Damaged ships make a German escape more dangerousNotable Point
See why a German retreat with crippled ships, rather than cleanly sunk ones, could expose the High Seas Fleet to interception after dark or at dawn.
- 2:42:09QuestionWould Jellicoe and Fisher seek an escort resembling a Second World War Tribal-class destroyer?AnswerQ&A
Probably a scout cruiser with characteristics resembling the later Tribal destroyer.
- 2:43:25QuestionWould the losses prove that battlecruisers were a failure?AnswerQ&A
Not inherently. Battlecruisers become dangerously exposed when used against threats their protection was not meant to withstand, while their intended roles remain valid.
- 2:46:25QuestionWere the pre-dreadnoughts Germany's greatest obstacle to a fast retreat?AnswerQ&A
Damaged dreadnoughts could be just as slow or slower. Sacrificing the pre-dreadnoughts would buy little time against the Grand Fleet.
- 2:47:54A decisive Jutland could change the war's timetableChapter
Follow the argument that a shattered High Seas Fleet could let Britain press into the Baltic, affect German war prospects, and make later U-boat pressure less decisive.
- 2:48:06Earlier shell reform could face less competition for explosivesNotable Point
Earlier adoption of improved naval shells could have reduced competition with the army's expanding artillery demand.
- 2:51:01QuestionWere defective fuzes the only problem with British shells at Jutland?AnswerQ&A
No. Soft caps, weak shell bodies, premature explosions, and unreliable fuzes all contributed to the failure of British armour-piercing ammunition.
- 2:53:04A decisive battle favours fast battleships over battlecruisersNotable Point
Consider how an alternate Jutland might favour 28-knot, heavily armoured fast battleships, reshape American and Japanese plans, and weaken the path to naval limitation.
- 2:56:34QuestionCould Admiral-class successors carry 16.5-inch or 18-inch guns?AnswerQ&A
Yes. Moving to 16.5-inch or 18-inch guns is accepted as a possible development.
- 3:03:26QuestionDid the Washington Naval Treaty originate with the Wilson or Harding administration?AnswerQ&A
The groundwork began under Wilson and was carried forward by Harding; remove Wilson's postwar framework and the treaty becomes much less likely.
- 3:04:44Reginald Hall explains Jutland as a strategic victoryNotable Point
Hear Hall's black-eye analogy for a battle that left Britain holding the strategic position despite its visible losses.
- 3:05:25QuestionCould German U-boats prevent the Royal Navy from exploiting a decisive victory at Jutland?AnswerQ&A
Not immediately. Germany would need time to expand its submarine force, while Britain could move quickly with heavy destroyer and light-force protection.
- 3:10:32An earlier peace leaves Russia and Austria-Hungary open questionsNotable Point
Follow the deliberately cautious speculation about a Lenin-led revolution, Austro-Hungarian survival, federation, republican government, or a replacement monarchy.
- 3:11:54QuestionWould a replacement monarchy choose a French general or a British royal?AnswerQ&A
A French general fits Napoleon's ascendancy. In this scenario, a British royal could advertise friendship with Britain and help seek protection from France and Italy.
- 3:16:51QuestionCould Bertie renounce the British succession to take an Austro-Hungarian throne?AnswerQ&A
The proposal is rejected because Britain would want to keep its immediate successors available. Prince Arthur is suggested instead.
- 3:18:06Responsibility for Beatty's signalling extended through his staffNotable Point
Look beyond the usual blame placed on Ralph Seymour to the senior officers responsible for supervising Beatty's communications staff.
- 3:22:16A shattered High Seas Fleet could rewrite Germany's naval lessonNotable Point
Consider how an unmistakable fleet defeat might replace the stab-in-the-back story with a warning against challenging British sea power.
- 3:29:40QuestionIf Milne commanded the battlecruiser fleet instead of Beatty, would the result be better or worse?AnswerQ&A
Milne is preferred as the more proficient admiral, despite being less dashing than Beatty.
- 3:30:05QuestionCould Germany still build a navy large enough to challenge the Royal Navy after this alternate peace?AnswerQ&A
No. A peace dictated by the victorious Royal Navy would impose especially severe restrictions on German naval industry.