Preventing Goeben's arrival in the Ottoman Empire changes the eastern Mediterranean as well as the ammunition programme. Without Goeben's arrival, the 3 November 1914 bombardment that historically alerted the Dardanelles defences may not occur, leaving two possible branches: Ottoman neutrality or a less prepared strait when an Allied force later arrives. Either outcome could keep supply moving to Russia and change whether the costly Gallipoli campaign occurs or succeeds. A different eastern Mediterranean commitment could also leave HMS Queen Elizabeth with the Grand Fleet, adding a trained 15-inch-gun ship to Jutland's order of battle. The calculation has to include the whole Royal Navy's ammunition problem, rather than only the famous 15-inch guns.
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Goeben's loss reshapes Gallipoli and the Grand Fleet
Trace the wider consequences of preventing Goeben's Ottoman service: a different Dardanelles problem, altered support for Russia, and possibly another Queen Elizabeth-class ship at Jutland.