What would the United States receive under the Washington settlement if Britain had already put 16.5-inch guns on its capital ships?
Short answerThe treaty ceiling might rise to 16.5-inch guns and roughly 50,000 tons, but the United States would probably keep its established 16-inch system and seek permission to build more ships rather than pay to retool for only half an inch of extra caliber.
NotesThe counterfactual begins with a British K3 or G3-type ship armed with 420 mm guns and completed before the Washington Naval Conference. If Britain entered negotiations with four such ships while America had only a few 16-inch ships, the existing fleets could push the legal ceiling upward in caliber and displacement. Congress would be unlikely to fund the industrial and logistical changes needed to move American production from 16 to 16.5 inches for such a small gain. A more plausible bargain would let both navies retain or build additional heavy ships. The result would be a larger interwar battlefleet and a different starting point for later naval competition.