Tsingtao 1939: WWII but in January & against Japan - P1 Introduction to Patreon Video 4

Tsingtao provides the starting point for a counterfactual in which the January 1939 confrontation grows into an earlier war in the Far East.

The incident is placed amid the Sino-Japanese War, attacks on foreign interests, Soviet-Japanese fighting, and a Europe already strained by Munich and the Spanish Civil War.

Britain and the United States could support Chinese Nationalists while American oil, steel, and scrap exports still sustained Japanese military industry.

Treaty ports, foreign possessions, and advancing Japanese forces left Hong Kong exposed and made Tsingtao strategically significant.

The Nanking Massacre, the capture of Wuhan, and air raids on civilian areas show the violence already surrounding any foreign naval intervention in China.

Soviet aid to China and Japan's limited 1938 clash at Lake Khasan fed a belief that outside powers could be tested without provoking a general war.

Extensive American trade sustained Japan's war effort even as relations worsened, while its naval air arm had not yet reached the strength associated with the later Pacific War.

The seizure revolved around a slow merchant vessel with a tangled registration, ownership, and operating history, and an uncertain account of its voyage.

HMS Birmingham and the small sloop HMS Folkestone raced from the Weihaiwei base toward the seized merchantman, revealing the value of local naval presence.

Japan's January 1939 carrier-fighter force still relied on Nakajima A4N biplanes, sharply limiting the capability later associated with the Zero.

Three Japanese heavy cruisers confronted HMS Birmingham and lightly armed HMS Folkestone, creating a sharp imbalance in firepower but a dangerous diplomatic tripwire.

Missing Foreign Office records prevent certainty about the merchantman's reported diplomatic papers, although a routine communique is treated as more likely than a British back channel.

Captain Eric Brind and Birmingham's experienced China Station personnel could draw on local languages, relationships, and regional knowledge during the confrontation.

Birmingham placed itself between the merchantman and Japanese cruisers, while Folkestone's shallow draft and modest profile made a second British ship a pointed but less provocative signal.

Sunday delays and boat-borne messages frustrated negotiations until Captain Brind declared that the British ships and merchantman would leave at eight the next morning.

Edward Ashmore combined local language and family experience with the low rank of a midshipman, making his party capable but difficult to portray as an aggressive escalation.

Ashmore, a petty officer, and four ratings prevented another boarding through formal obstruction, creating a tiny but politically potent tripwire aboard the merchantman.

Folkestone, SS St Vincent de Paul, and Birmingham left Tsingtao in that order while Japanese and British guns were trained across the confrontation, yet no shots were fired.

The slow escort to Shanghai becomes the setting for a conjectured clash between a more cautious Japanese Navy and army officers pressing it to avenge a perceived dishonour.

In the video's legal interpretation, Japan may have had a valid complaint about the declared voyage, while the seizure violated flag-state jurisdiction in international waters.

The scenario diverges when Ashigara pursues the slow convoy in daylight and torpedoes the merchantman while avoiding direct fire on the Royal Navy escorts.