Video
If the January 1939 Tsingtao incident leads to war... Comment Response
Study If the January 1939 Tsingtao incident leads to war... Comment Response, a Dr. Alex Clarke video from 17 Feb 2023, with 32 time notes. Topics include Alternate History, Battlecruisers, Battleships.
Time notes
- 0:48Hood and Royal Navy preservation habitsNotable Point
A Hood counterfactual turns into a sharper point about how rarely the Royal Navy preserved even famous battleships and frigates.
- 3:13QuestionIn a January 1939 Tsingtao war, would Germany and Italy seek moral superiority because of a close relationship with Japan?AnswerQ&A
Modern diplomatic language does not map cleanly onto the 1920s and 1930s, and the later Axis relationship cannot be projected back into January 1939.
- 4:25How a 1939 naval war might change Japanese air attacksNotable Point
A counterfactual considers how home airfields, stronger carrier defenses, and early combat experience could alter Japanese strike tactics.
- 5:16Ark Royal was unarmoured, not wooden-deckedNotable Point
A brief correction distinguishes Ark Royal's steel strength and flight deck from both an armoured carrier deck and the wooden flight decks used by other navies.
- 5:40QuestionWould France remain neutral, and could Germany or Italy protect their trade with neutrality patrols?AnswerQ&A
France has alliance and imperial reasons to support Britain, while German and Italian patrols would have nowhere suitable to base from inside the war zone.
- 7:06QuestionWould wartime experience push the Royal Navy toward long-barrel 6-inch secondary guns for high-altitude anti-aircraft fire?AnswerQ&A
Probably not. The 5.25-inch gun was already in development, which makes a new 6-inch heavy-AA weapon an unlikely change of course.
- 7:51QuestionCould a battleship combine heavy 18-inch guns with lighter 12- to 14-inch turrets for ranging and anti-raider work?AnswerQ&A
No. Different shell and ranging characteristics make mixed main batteries a fire-control and logistics problem, which dreadnought-style standardization was intended to solve.
- 10:34QuestionWould battlecruisers with fighter-launching rails provide useful emergency CAP for convoy escort or carrier vulnerability windows?AnswerQ&A
The Royal Navy would meet that need with carriers, old battleships on convoy duty, and multi-carrier operations. Fighter rails would add aviation hazards and recovery problems to new battlecruisers.
- 15:43HMS Unicorn as a forward aviation support shipNotable Point
HMS Unicorn illustrates how the Royal Navy planned to sustain carrier air groups with replacement aircraft, repairs, and forward aviation support.
- 17:47Carrier storage versus a broken spare-parts pipelineNotable Point
Mediterranean aircraft shortages are traced to Battle of Britain demands on engines and spares rather than simply to inadequate storage aboard armoured carriers.
- 19:00Aircraft growth, deck parking, and British carrier doctrineNotable Point
British armoured carriers are judged against the aircraft and perpetual-operation doctrine they were designed for, rather than later aircraft growth or Pacific alpha-strike practice.
- 20:35Why British armored carriers kept centerline liftsNotable Point
British centerline aircraft lifts reflected North Atlantic conditions and the effort to preserve an armored hangar box, not ignorance of deck-edge alternatives.
- 21:15Carrier endurance depends on operating geographyNotable Point
A range comparison shows why carrier endurance must be judged against bases, routes, replenishment practice, and the theater in which a navy expects to fight.
- 22:23Matching carrier design to doctrineNotable Point
A carrier-doctrine comparison ties Yorktown, Ark Royal, and British armoured carriers to the missions each design was built to perform.
- 26:29QuestionCould Germany and Italy support useful independent fleet deployments to a Far East war, or exploit the distraction in Europe?AnswerQ&A
Their Far East deployments would depend on allied bases and support, while Germany in January 1939 was unprepared for a western offensive.
- 28:48QuestionWould Britain immediately send its three battlecruisers east to counter the Kongo class, and would that accelerate HMS Vanguard?AnswerQ&A
Not immediately: Renown remained in refit until August 1939, while uninterrupted or accelerated King George V- and Lion-class construction might remove the circumstances that produced Vanguard in her historical form.
- 29:13QuestionAt roughly 60 meters, could cruiser 6-inch guns depress far enough to threaten an opposing ship's magazines rather than only its superstructure?AnswerQ&A
Even with about five degrees of depression, the shells could wreck structural integrity, ricochet inside the armor belt, and possibly ignite magazines. A target left afloat could still be beyond repair.
- 31:31QuestionWould Britain keep a large fleet at home because of Germany, or could a Tsingtao war still send major forces east?AnswerQ&A
Germany posed little fleet threat in January 1939, so Britain could send a strong battle line east and use blockade pressure to weaken Japan before seeking battle.
- 33:50QuestionWould British caution about Europe and American isolationism prevent either country from making a serious commitment against Japan?AnswerQ&A
Britain could prefer a distant naval war and use it to justify rearmament, while the United States could present participation as a limited fleet campaign shaped by existing hostility after incidents such as Panay.
- 35:41USS Maine: accident before exploitationNotable Point
A comparison with USS Maine separates an accidental ship loss from the political exploitation that followed it.
- 36:41A period guide to British imperial defense geographyNotable Point
D. H. Cole's Imperial Military Geography is recommended as a period source for understanding British defense problems, available forces, and imperial resources.
- 38:56QuestionHow could the United States, France, and the Netherlands justify joining a war with Japan when domestic politics resisted mass troop commitments?AnswerQ&A
The case is easier if the war is presented as a limited naval campaign using fleets, cruisers, submarines, and blockade support, with no mass land armies required at the outset.
- 45:23Italy changes Germany's European calculationNotable Point
An alternate-war discussion shows why Italy siding with Britain and France could deter German opportunism more than a simple Far East distraction suggests.
- 47:50QuestionCould a German-Soviet invasion of Poland widen the Tsingtao war into an alternate Second World War while Britain remained focused on Japan?AnswerQ&A
The Soviet Union might find it advantageous to join the coalition against Japan, leaving Germany more isolated than the proposed German-Soviet alignment assumes.
- 48:56QuestionWas HMS Vanguard already a developed emergency fast-capital-ship design in March 1939?AnswerQ&A
Not yet. The March 1939 proposal described a way to assemble a battleship quickly, while design studies and the developed ship followed after war began.
- 50:38QuestionWhy would the United States need island-hopping if its intact 1939-40 battle fleet could seek a decisive fleet and air battle?AnswerQ&A
Because the fleet still needs sustainable forward bases and additional axes of attack; forcing battle does not remove the logistics required to move and support naval power across the Pacific.
- 51:39QuestionHow would a January 1939 Far East war change British, French, and American naval construction plans?AnswerQ&A
Britain would probably accelerate fast battleships and fleet carriers. Montana-class and French carrier choices would depend on the war's duration and the experience gained from combat.
- 53:05QuestionWould surviving First World War capital ships be retained for convoy escort if a European war followed the conflict with Japan?AnswerQ&A
Possibly. The choice would depend on the later war, how many replacements had been built, carrier availability, and whether the old ships consumed too many crew for the value they provided.
- 53:38QuestionWhat happens if the Soviet Union attacks Manchuria after blockade pressure begins collapsing Japan's economy?AnswerQ&A
Britain's response would depend chiefly on the Republic of China's position and whether Britain and China were allied at that point.
- 54:00QuestionHow would Admiral Ernest King react to helping the Royal Navy in the Far East?AnswerQ&A
His blood pressure would be astronomical, but he would still have to cooperate.
- 57:40Chinese Gladiators against the Mitsubishi A5MNotable Point
A viewer's research note identifies Chinese-American ace Arthur Chin's Gloster Gladiator victories over Japanese Mitsubishi A5M fighters.
- 57:54QuestionDid warship designs ever mix different numbers of guns among their main-battery turrets?AnswerQ&A
Yes. Italian and U.S. battleships and cruisers used or explored unequal arrangements, although logistics and design complications made the layouts unattractive.