The passage tests whether a war with Japan would give Hitler a freer hand in Europe. Italy had influenced the earlier calculation over Anschluss by making its military opposition matter to Germany. An Italy aligned with Britain and France would make a new German move risk an immediate two-front war. Counterfactual strategy therefore depends on the whole alliance map as well as the location of British warships.
Notable Point · 45:23-47:03
Italy changes Germany's European calculation
An alternate-war discussion shows why Italy siding with Britain and France could deter German opportunism more than a simple Far East distraction suggests.