What if the Washington Naval Treaty let every member build two replacement battleships?
Short answerThe United States and Japan could complete advanced existing designs, Britain would tailor Nelsons or G3-type ships in response, and Italy might finish two Francesco Caracciolo-class battleships.
NotesBritain historically needed special permission to build Nelson and Rodney because much of its battle fleet was older than American and Japanese construction. If every signatory could finish two ships, the United States and Japan could select advanced hulls already under construction, forcing Britain to answer the designs they chose. American completion of Lexington-class battlecruisers might push Britain toward a fast G3-type response, while new heavy battleships would favour Nelson and Rodney. Italy could finish two Francesco Caracciolo-class ships, projected with eight 15-inch guns, roughly 35,000 tons displacement, and about 28 knots. France might still decline on cost grounds. A later variation gives the United States a fleet dominated by Lexington battlecruisers and the first South Dakota-class battleships. That fleet would be stronger, but only in a world where Britain and Japan also retain more powerful ships. Equal numerical permission would not be equal in effect because each navy entered the treaty with a different construction pipeline.