The likelihood of an event and its ability to force institutional change are separate questions. A peacetime test might be easier to arrange, yet Armstrong Whitworth, Vickers, their commercial allies, and sympathetic officials could still explain failure away as an old pattern or a bad batch. A damaged German warship examined during an active conflict would make those arguments much harder to sustain because the consequences of ineffective shells were immediate and public. Combat evidence could align political, commercial, and naval actors behind reform even if the encounter itself was less likely than a peacetime trial.
Notable Point · 40:31-43:37
Wartime evidence could break industrial resistance
Visible shell failure against a German warship in an actual war gives reformers leverage that peacetime test results could not reliably provide.