Without French Atlantic bases, German submarines must operate from Germany or Norway and spend more of their endurance simply reaching patrol areas. Radar-equipped aircraft between Scotland and Iceland could catch boats forced to spend much of that transit on the surface. Allied hunter-killer groups could concentrate on the same northern bottleneck, while convoys could continue using more southerly Western Approaches routes. American coastal operations, the historical Bay of Biscay threat, and the second happy time all become less likely, sharply reducing German success.
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The Atlantic campaign without French U-boat bases
Operating only from Germany or Norway shortens U-boat reach and concentrates Allied patrols across a northern bottleneck.