Q&A · 8:42:34-8:44:17

A Washington treaty without a building holiday

Limited continuous construction could have restrained fleet size without destroying shipyard skills or national confidence.

Question

How could the Washington Naval Treaty have been changed to benefit the Commonwealth?

Short answer

The proposed counterfactual allows limited continuous construction under the agreed ratios in place of a long building holiday.

Notes

The counterfactual replaces the capital-ship building holiday with limited construction in each five-year period. Under the example offered, Britain and the United States could each build five ships in that period, while Japan could build three. Continued work would retain shipbuilding capacity and allow designs to develop without abandoning the agreed ratios. The proposal also addresses perceptions of security: Japan could continue pursuing technical advantages, while Britain and France would avoid some of the industrial weakening associated here with the holiday. Construction limits would still restrain costs and the pace of competition. These are proposed effects of an alternative treaty, rather than outcomes that can be demonstrated.