A conversion based on Furious and Eagle is estimated to need about 38,500 tons to carry 52 aircraft. Lexington and Saratoga later beat that estimate, so the figure is not a universal law of conversion design. Its value is historical: these were the kinds of numbers available while the treaty was being negotiated. Technically minded navies could reason carefully and still make rules from an immature evidence base.
Notable Point · 40:36-41:26
How imperfect carrier data shaped treaty choices
Conversion estimates looked poor because treaty planners had only early-carrier evidence, even though Lexington and Saratoga later performed better.