German bombers lose their most useful northern approach if they cannot operate from Norway, leaving Glasgow, Edinburgh, and industrial areas harder to reach. Britain can keep more production and pilot training in safer locations, though it must still devote forces to Norway. German long-range reconnaissance also loses Norwegian positions used to find Atlantic convoys and cue U-boats or attacks on British ports. Lost Scandinavian inputs do not transform the German army already in the field in 1940. Their stronger effect is on 1941 replacements, steel, and aluminium capacity.
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A safer northern Britain and delayed German replacement power
Denying Norway to the Luftwaffe protects northern industry and compounds a German materials shortage that mainly bites in later replacement production.