What if a Christchurch firm began license-building Catalinas for New Zealand in 1939?
Short answerNew Zealand and other Commonwealth forces would gain more maritime patrol aircraft, potentially giving Force Z better reconnaissance before its fatal sortie.
NotesThe counterfactual imagines a Christchurch production effort, jokingly called "Bob Semple Engineering," license-building Catalinas from 1939. Local manufacture would place more flying boats with the Royal New Zealand Air Force and potentially other Commonwealth forces before Japan's advance. Those long-range patrol aircraft could search for Japanese formations around Malaya and Singapore rather than leaving Force Z to sortie with inadequate reconnaissance. Building to Consolidated plans matters because license production preserves a proven aircraft design instead of improvising a local airframe. The scenario links New Zealand industrial capacity to Commonwealth maritime intelligence without claiming that extra Catalinas guarantee the ships' survival.