What changes if the United States remains neutral throughout the First World War?
Short answerAmerica loses leverage behind Wilson's peace program and naval arms control, which could leave a harsher Versailles settlement and an Anglo-American capital-ship race.
NotesIf the United States stays neutral, Wilson’s Fourteen Points carry less weight and America lacks the standing to drive postwar naval arms control. Britain would face France more directly over the severity of Versailles, possibly producing a harsher peace or even a fragmented Germany. Continued American capital-ship construction could then push Britain to complete the G3 battlecruisers and N3 battleships. If Congress abandoned the expense, Britain might instead maintain a smaller rolling replacement program while preserving its industrial lead. Neutrality changes both the European peace and the competitive logic of postwar naval construction.