The recession still reduces industrial capacity

Wouldn't the 1933 recession still leave firms struggling to recover in 1938?

Yes, but steadier naval orders would leave them recovering from a higher industrial baseline.

A question drawing on Steve's recollection of his father's 1938 apprenticeship challenges the assumption that firms could expand while still recovering from recession. The scenario retains that recession. Steadier naval work beforehand and during the downturn would leave more capacity in place for the recovery. Even a similar proportional contraction could leave a larger surviving base. The numerical example illustrates that relationship without claiming measured production totals.