Q&A ยท 2:18:41-2:19:07

Technological transitions do not divide neatly into separate eras

Asked whether the present resembles the 1890s, 1910s, or 1930s, the answer challenges the assumption that those earlier transitions were cleanly separate.

Question

Does the current period of naval transition most resemble the 1890s, 1910s, or 1930s?

Short answer

The eras are not cleanly separate, and some technologies within any transition will themselves be temporary.

Notes

The question tries to match current naval change to one earlier transition era. The first difficulty is whether the 1890s, 1910s, and 1930s should be treated as separate episodes at all. Some technologies within a transition prove transitory themselves. The comparison therefore cautions against forcing a complex, overlapping process into one historical analogy.