Would Germany have alarmed the Allies by moving directly from 11-inch to 16-inch battleship guns, and did Krupp still possess 15-inch tooling?
Short answerThe Anglo-German Naval Agreement permitted 16-inch guns, Britain already operated Nelson and Rodney, and Versailles-era destruction forced Germany to rebuild 15-inch tooling before it could create 16-inch capacity.
NotesThe diplomatic ceiling and the industrial capacity needed to exploit it were separate problems. Building battleships of any calibre would concern France, while the Anglo-German Naval Agreement did not cap Germany at 15 inches and Britain itself possessed 16-inch-gun battleships. Choosing 15-inch guns before establishing 16-inch production added an expensive intermediate step. British authorities destroyed machinery and French authorities removed saleable equipment from Krupp after Versailles, leaving no retained 15-inch production line for Scharnhorst and Gneisenau. Arms limits, foreign threat perceptions, and surviving industrial plant could therefore point toward different procurement choices.