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What do the fleets look like if they achieve full pre-WWII Modernisation? Patreon Premier
Study What do the fleets look like if they achieve full pre-WWII Modernisation? Patreon Premier, a Dr. Alex Clarke video from 4 Aug 2024, with 31 time notes. Topics include Alternate History, Force Structure, Imperial…
Time notes
- 0:20Modernisation plans do not stand stillChapter
An extended peace produces a continuing naval arms race because each construction programme reacts to the others.
- 7:52QuestionHow would the combat fleets change if the major navies completed their pre-war modernisation plans before World War II?AnswerQ&A
A delay of roughly five years produces larger, more modern fleets. They also differ from the original plans because every navy reacts to the others' construction and technology.
- 10:00British carrier construction beyond ImplacableNotable Point
Continued rival construction would encourage Britain to order and refine more carriers after Implacable and Indefatigable.
- 12:08Why civilian industry sustains the arms raceNotable Point
The delay favours economies that can keep making civilian goods, machine tools, and factory equipment while paying for rearmament.
- 17:22France: fast capital ships, carriers, and Mediterranean deterrenceChapter
France would probably favour fast, heavily armed capital ships and additional carriers to deter Italy and contribute a task force alongside Britain.
- 25:43Japan: qualitative superiority versus shipyard bottlenecksChapter
Japan's pursuit of exceptionally large battleships could create a gun-calibre race, but the same ships risk consuming the industrial capacity needed for a balanced fleet.
- 26:09Twenty-inch guns: loading cycles and rangeNotable Point
Japan's proposed 20-inch guns could trade heavier shells for slower fire and less range than smaller weapons.
- 30:43Shinano as a battleship and Japan's construction choicesNotable Point
Shinano could remain a battleship in an extended peace, while further giant ships would restrict Japan's other major building programmes.
- 35:41Who leads an Anglo-American war against Japan?Notable Point
Japan's fleet problem includes coalition politics: whichever Anglo-American power enters first may set the strategy that the other must join.
- 37:13Italy: completing the Littorios and adding carrier aviationChapter
An extended peace would likely complete Impero, open a follow-on battleship programme, and make an Italian carrier increasingly difficult to avoid.
- 43:43Britain's three-power problem and the Suez lifelineNotable Point
Britain must plan against Germany, Italy, and Japan as one connected problem because the Mediterranean route sustains reinforcement of the Far East.
- 45:19Germany: Plan Z's quality-quantity trapChapter
Germany may field a carrier and more Plan Z ships, but repeated design leaps and limited naval infrastructure make matching rival fleet numbers increasingly difficult.
- 46:01Imperial armies let Britain prioritise sea and air powerNotable Point
Britain can concentrate on naval and air expansion because the Indian Army and Dominion forces add deployable land power across the Empire.
- 47:24German shipyard readiness and the cost of changing designsNotable Point
Commissioning ships and yards before testing is complete, then changing designs, reduces the output Germany can obtain from limited infrastructure.
- 53:04Germany's balanced peacetime fleetNotable Point
Without wartime emergency expansion, Germany is more likely to continue Plan Z as a balanced fleet than to reproduce the historical mass U-boat programme.
- 57:20United States: industrial scale changes the carrier raceChapter
With more peacetime development, the United States could test early Essex-class carriers and move toward a Midway-like design before committing to mass production.
- 58:59Why British and American carriers would still divergeNotable Point
A delayed war may move both navies toward larger armoured carriers, but their operating geography still produces different balances of armour and aircraft capacity.
- 1:03:38Peacetime procurement changes Anglo-American industryNotable Point
Without an immediate war, Britain buys less from American factories, expands more production at home, and changes the industrial path of both navies.
- 1:06:05Soviet construction adds uncertainty to the naval raceNotable Point
Uncertain Soviet building plans could stimulate rival construction and force Germany to retain ships in the Baltic.
- 1:07:34Capital ships and light carriers for Australia and CanadaNotable Point
Removing treaty limits could let Australia and Canada acquire reconditioned capital ships and light carriers, with time to train before war.
- 1:11:25Colonial escorts and joint imperial fleetsNotable Point
Local corvettes and destroyer flotillas could widen convoy protection, while exercises and joint squadrons connect the expanding imperial navies.
- 1:13:38Britain: preserving numbers while expanding fast capital ships and carriersChapter
Britain's broad industrial base supports a fleet that keeps older capital ships useful while adding Vanguards, Lions, carriers, destroyers, escorts, and submarines.
- 1:18:16Britain's two-tier destroyers and global escort networkChapter
The projected Royal Navy pairs large fleet destroyers with simpler mass-produced escorts, giving its global strategy both combat power and numerical coverage.
- 1:20:37Twenty-five capital ships and the choices behind Dominion transfersNotable Point
A projected twenty-five-ship Royal Navy combines fourteen new capital ships with eleven retained vessels, while later completions create options for Australia and Canada.
- 1:25:47Strategic depth for Japan, an imperial lifeline for BritainNotable Point
Japan relies on ocean approaches for strategic depth, while Britain relies on sea routes as the internal communications that hold its Empire together.
- 1:27:45British responses to very large guns and imperial logisticsNotable Point
A successor to Lion could retain 16-inch guns or move to nine 18-inch weapons, with ammunition supply becoming harder as more calibres enter service.
- 1:29:41Minor powers join the naval raceChapter
Dutch, Swedish, Finnish, Greek, Turkish, and other smaller fleets become consequential when a five-year delay gives them time to order, build, and deploy new forces.
- 1:34:01Radar and automation reshape the delayed-war fleetsNotable Point
Five extra years allow radar, radar-directed fire control, aircraft, and automatic naval guns to mature before fighting begins.
- 1:35:34Swedish national service, delegated command, and Norwegian rearmamentNotable Point
Sweden combines demanding equipment with short-service personnel trusted to act independently, while its fleet expansion could encourage Norway to rearm.
- 1:38:39Why Britain and America gain most from the delayChapter
A delayed war creates larger fleets everywhere, while Britain and the United States gain especially from their industrial base, reserves, and time to train and improve designs.
- 1:39:57What a five-year delay to World War I reveals about carriersNotable Point
Delaying World War I to 1919 could give Britain time to develop carriers for Zeppelin interception before hostilities begin.