Reserve planning lost its margin under two successive assumptions: a Cold War conflict would end quickly in nuclear exchange, and later wars could begin whenever governments had their forces ready. Both assumptions reduced the apparent need for spare ships. The criticism of wars of choice is that an opponent can impose a conflict even on a dominant power. The Anglo-Zanzibar War and the Boer Wars illustrate the argument that an apparently overwhelming advantage does not prevent unwanted or costly fighting. Explaining how planners reached their assumptions also does not excuse overlooking that historical risk.
Notable Point · 56:34-59:30
Why reserve planning cannot assume wars of choice
Reserve capacity declined under assumptions that nuclear war would end quickly and later conflicts could begin only when governments chose.