How might War Plan Red have unfolded at sea after an American seizure of Canada?
Short answerIt likely leads to an Atlantic fleet battle in which initial British advantages, American industrial depth, and Japanese intervention all make a clean US victory unlikely.
NotesThe likeliest fleet battles would occur near Iceland or the Azores rather than in empty mid-Atlantic waters. The United States might have greater long-term industrial capacity, but Britain could begin with faster battlecruisers and, without the Washington treaty, G3s or other unrealized capital ships. Both navies understood that fighting each other would free Japan to attack in the Pacific, making War Plan Red strategically unattractive even before Canada and invasion logistics entered the calculation. In a follow-up, British battlecruiser commerce raiding could force the theoretically stronger American battle line to disperse while G3s confronted unconverted Lexington-class battlecruisers.