The Royal Navy was told that two ships could guarantee one available carrier, based on modelling likened to commercial freight-fleet planning. Civilian firms can forecast contracted demand and hire extra vehicles when surprised, whereas a navy cannot quickly hire another carrier. Wars and crises make the variables open-ended, so defence procurement needs resilience beyond the commercial optimum. The two world wars and the global reach of the Napoleonic conflicts illustrate the argument for allowing more reserve capacity than a commercial model would justify.
Notable Point · 8:34-13:20
Why two carriers cannot guarantee certainty
Commercial fleet models can forecast contracts and hire extra vehicles; carrier procurement must allow for crises that cannot be scheduled or met with hired ships.