The divergence begins with a slightly more successful Japanese air attack at Tsingtao. Fisher had a precedent for seizing on foreign evidence that validated ideas he already favored. His enthusiastic response to the Battle of Tsushima supplies the historical analogy. The carrier scenario extrapolates from Fisher's observed behavior without treating the outcome as inevitable.
Notable Point · 1:26:18-1:26:46
Tsingtao echoes Fisher's response to Tsushima
The closing causal link compares a successful Tsingtao air attack with Fisher's earlier habit of using Japanese naval success at Tsushima to validate ideas he already favored.