Disarmament, balance, and deterrence

The naval arms race was a symptom of the political tensions behind the First World War rather than their cause. The treaty system brought together an American lobby that wanted Japan weakened and politicians who sincerely believed that fewer weapons would remove the incentive for war. That premise is tested against both the Cold War's knife-edge danger and the relative stability of the later nineteenth century. In this interpretation, mutual strength can make negotiation rational because both sides understand the cost of escalation. Political realism fits the historical record better here, although liberal theory offers a more hopeful view. The destroyer proposal therefore preserves credible defensive strength within an arms-control system.