In this counterfactual argument, American negotiators pushed Japan close to the minimum it would accept while gathering extensive intelligence on Japanese and British positions. That could look like diplomatic success yet leave Japanese politicians unable to present a meaningful victory at home. A more favourable heavy-cruiser ratio might have supplied such a win while Britain and the United States retained advantages in capital ships and lighter cruisers. Peace would still have been uncertain because greater Japanese pride in heavy cruisers might have encouraged further construction. Fleet ratios were tied to the domestic politics that could make an arms-control system durable or brittle.
Notable Point · 31:50-35:07
Why arms-control bargains needed political wins
A counterfactual cruiser bargain illustrates how squeezing a negotiating partner to its minimum could weaken a naval settlement’s domestic legitimacy.