The historical baseline gives ten torpedo bombers hits on Conte di Cavour, Caio Duilio, and Littorio, while Andrea Doria and Vittorio Veneto were missed and Giulio Cesare was not attacked. The counterfactual then gives Eagle and Illustrious eighteen Swordfish each, with Fulmars available for the attack and Sea Gladiators retained in the combined air groups. In the model, 36 Swordfish and nine Fulmars form three waves, with eight torpedo aircraft in each wave and the remaining aircraft carrying bombs and flares. The simulated hit distribution suggests much heavier damage, especially to Littorio. These numbers come from an assessment informed by contemporary analysis and computer simulation, so they describe a model rather than a certain outcome.
Notable Point · 51:40-55:23
A two-carrier model tests the limits of Taranto's result
The video compares the historical ten-torpedo attack with a clearly labelled simulation of how Eagle and Illustrious might have mounted three larger waves.