Why suspect Taiwan might retain a nuclear capability when its earlier partners South Africa and Israel followed different paths?
Short answerThere is no proof offered here, only scepticism: South Africa built and dismantled weapons and Israel is widely suspected of retaining them, so Taiwan's case should not be treated as certain either way.
NotesThe answer is explicitly framed as suspicion rather than evidence of a Taiwanese arsenal. South Africa demonstrates that a state in the earlier network could develop weapons and later dispose of them. Israel supplies the contrasting case of enduring strategic ambiguity. Taiwan's current status remains an unresolved intelligence question, with no confident conclusion offered here.