What does Swedish membership add to NATO, and how would an Allied Baltic have mattered historically?
Short answerIt adds substantial defensive depth, nearby air bases, and a stronger northern flank while further constraining Russian Baltic options.
NotesSwedish and Finnish air forces can support the Baltic states from nearby bases, adding depth to their defence. Norway also gains greater depth on the northern flank. The Baltic, like the Black Sea, presents confined waters that make major fleet operations difficult, increasing the relative importance of Russia's Northern Fleet. In the historical counterfactual, Allied control of the Baltic during the Second World War is judged highly damaging to German operations.