The naval counterfactual changes the balance ashore before it changes Norway's wider fate. Colonel Konrad Sundlo could rationalize surrender to a force of roughly 2,000 German mountain troops, but that argument weakens sharply if ship losses leave only 400 or 600 attackers. Any surviving coastal-defence ship would also offer artillery support and a visible rally point for Norwegian soldiers. Under this favorable, less probable branch, Germany might fail to secure Narvik harbor at all.
Notable Point · 56:22-57:13
Surviving warships change Sundlo's surrender calculus
Destroyer losses could reduce the German landing to only hundreds of troops while Norwegian ships provide fire support, making an immediate surrender much harder to justify.