Submarine posture creates dilemmas before war

NATO doctrine could call for attack submarines to move forward before war, but political leaders would fear accidents and escalation while negotiations continued. Submarines could consequently be limited to the Norwegian Sea, with most surface ships held nearer the GIUK defensive zone. The Soviet Union, having chosen war in this scenario, could use that delay to send submarines through the gap into the wider Atlantic. Its initial attack is deliberately confined to Norway and Svalbard so that territorial gains can become political leverage while the conflict remains conventional.