Would the Washington Treaty or Pacific War still happen?

Would a naval treaty or a later Pacific war still happen after this early peace?

The proposed timeline omits the Washington treaty. A Pacific war remains conditional on Japan's choices, with naval expenditure and American industrial capacity shaping the alternatives.

The counterfactual assumes that the Washington treaty system does not form. Japan's military factions and ambitions remain relevant, but their development depends on its altered international relationships. Two possible outcomes are proposed: financial strain from funding the army and navy together, or a major naval race with the United States. In the latter branch, earlier American investment in shipbuilding infrastructure is expected to outweigh Japanese production, while Britain attempts to retain its naval lead.