Would a no-treaty Japanese fleet after the Great Kanto earthquake settle at a fixed mix of Tosa, Nagato, Owari, Fuso, Amagi, and Kongo classes?
Short answerNo; continued construction and strategic reactions would prevent the fleet from remaining fixed at that lineup.
NotesA realistic counterfactual cannot freeze Japanese construction at two Tosa, two Nagato, two Owari, two Fuso, four Amagi, and four Kongo-class ships. Without treaty restraint, Japanese planners and rival navies would continue reacting to one another, changing the fleet beyond that snapshot.