Q&A · 3:31:01-3:33:20

Naval treaty holidays concealed technological progress

Treaty limits redirected naval engineering and made each power's progress harder to observe, encouraging both overconfidence and exaggerated threat estimates.

Question

Did the naval treaties slow the rapid technological progress of the pre-1920 naval arms race?

Short answer

Not necessarily; they redirected and concealed progress, making rival capabilities harder to judge and sometimes increasing insecurity.

Notes

Designers continued improving ships during the treaty era by finding ways to work within or around formal limits. Treaty evasion made some advances harder to observe, while the building holiday removed the new construction through which rival navies could otherwise judge progress. In this interpretation, some states became overconfident about their own lead and others exaggerated their opponents' capabilities. A proposed alternative permits continued building within agreed ratios. The example allows Britain and the United States ten ships each over ten years, Japan seven, and France and Italy four each. Continued construction would make development more visible while preserving agreed numerical limits.