How might the 1930 London Naval Treaty have differed if naval officers rather than politicians led the negotiations?
Short answerThey would likely protect construction capacity, resist 14-inch guns, and favor size limits with more freedom to build replacement ships.
NotesThe counterfactual begins with the industrial damage caused by extending a building holiday too long. Naval officers would likely recognize that yards, gun makers, and specialist labor had to receive some work before their skills disappeared. The panel doubts they would accept a move toward 14-inch battleship guns. It also suggests they might retain maximum ship sizes while abandoning cumulative fleet tonnage limits, allowing replacement construction to continue. During the Great Depression, such freedom could turn warship orders into employment policy as well as fleet renewal. The result would preserve industrial capacity but could also produce a larger and more competitive naval buildup.