How would the largest navies look in 1939-41 if the Great Depression never happened?
Short answerThey would probably be larger under a less restrictive London treaty, though the absence of Depression-era reforms creates offsetting economic weaknesses.
NotesThe Washington treaty predates the Great Depression, but the 1930 London settlement would face different financial pressures if the Depression never occurred. More available money and less incentive to avoid construction could produce a different agreement. Japanese expansion would become more pronounced, while France, Italy, and other powers would have greater scope to build. The economic consequences are less certain because the same scenario removes banking reforms and changes the American infrastructure investment associated with the New Deal. Larger naval budgets would therefore coexist with a different path to wartime economic capacity.