A proposal to give Japan sixteen carriers in place of its capital ships would require carrier construction to begin in the dreadnought era. Aircraft available in 1906 had little in common with those of 1914 or 1944. Britain and the United States would also respond to Japanese carrier construction, just as the Royal Navy would react to a German carrier programme. Changing hull types would leave the need for trained aircrews and supporting infrastructure. Mitchell's own certainty illustrates the related danger of treating expected future aircraft performance as evidence of what aircraft could already do.
Notable Point · 12:23-18:54
Carrier counterfactuals depend on aircraft, crews, and rival responses
Replacing Japanese or German battleships with carriers would still leave constraints on aircraft capability, trained crews, infrastructure, and enemy construction.