Michael Clapp and the flaws in a Falklands loss model

An account of Michael Clapp's return from the Falklands describes an RAF computer estimate that Argentine aircraft should have destroyed the British naval force three times over. The estimate reportedly concerned bombing attacks and excluded Exocet, with the amphibious group and merchant ships judged particularly vulnerable. Clapp's earlier experience as a Buccaneer S2 squadron commander and observer gave him extensive familiarity with anti-shipping attacks. His reported objection was that the model did not adequately allow ships to move or defend themselves. Individual ships, task groups, and larger forces could each contribute successive layers of defense.