Why long counterfactual chains become fragile

Could a less Anglophobic postwar French leadership prevent several later wars and reshape Europe?

Some nearer institutional changes are plausible, but the full chain is too speculative because every divergence creates new risks and choices.

The prompt links a different French leadership to changes in Indochina, NATO, British carriers, the Falklands, the Gulf, and European integration. Nearer institutional links remain plausible, such as French carrier construction encouraging Britain to retain CVA-01. The scenario becomes much less certain once it stretches across several decades and assumes that every later crisis disappears. Each divergence creates new political choices and replacement risks, so a plausible alternate-history chain must acknowledge compounding uncertainty rather than treating desirable outcomes as automatic. A dictatorship under pressure may still choose an irrational war, so changing British strength could redirect Argentine aggression toward Chile rather than eliminate the danger.