Why the counterfactual cannot yield precise job totals

Precise employment or spending totals are unavailable because the counterfactual fleet programs cannot themselves be known. A failed London Treaty stays closer to the historical design base and permits more bounded guesses, while a missing Washington Treaty changes American appropriations and British, Japanese, and French responses too early for confident ship lists. A Republican Congress might refuse further construction after the Lexingtons and South Dakotas, only to reconsider when foreign designs appeared. Gun caliber, speed, logistics, dock capacity, and the results of weapons testing all feed back into later choices. Japan's preference for funding warships over expanding the industry beneath its yards adds another constraint. These mechanisms reveal plausible pressures, but they cannot produce exact forecasts.