How could Britain force Italy to surrender by late 1941?
Short answerA greatly reinforced Taranto strike and decisive success in North Africa could push Italy out, but the necessary concentration would be risky and costly elsewhere.
NotesAircraft alone do not produce an Italian surrender in this counterfactual. Bringing Ark Royal, Illustrious, and Eagle together could multiply the Taranto strike and keep the Regia Marina disabled for longer. Britain would also need reliable supply to North Africa and a decisive defeat of the Italian army there, removing the campaign that sustained Italy's wider position. Retaining Glorious or Courageous could make the carrier concentration easier, but only by changing earlier losses and deployments. The whole plan depends on hindsight and accepts serious risk and sacrifice in other theatres.