Without the Washington Naval Treaty, who would stop building first: Japan or the United States?
Short answerJapan faced severe financial limits, but an American political scandal could stop US funding first; the outcome depends on why negotiations failed.
NotesJapan might face bankruptcy around the late 1920s or early 1930s, with the Wall Street Crash worsening the strain, although continued naval construction could alter its civil-military balance. If treaty failure followed an American eavesdropping scandal, US isolationism might stop American appropriations before Japanese finances forced a halt. A failure blamed on Japanese aggression would produce a different political path.