Why did the IJN believe Japan would have more than a million additional tons of steel to distribute after 1943?
Short answerBecause planning followed inflated official claims produced by a system in which subordinates had strong incentives to hide missed targets.
NotesThe fleet was responding to what Japanese institutions claimed future steel production would be, not what the economy could realistically deliver. A system that punishes missed targets encourages each level to falsify performance upward, leaving naval planners with unreliable industrial data.