Greenland, Arctic basing, and the GIUK gap

How would control or procurement of Greenland affect allied strategy near the GIUK gap?

Expanded basing rights were judged more likely than American acquisition, with Danish Arctic patrol capacity remaining an important allied contribution.

In this January 2025 assessment, expanded American basing rights appeared more plausible than a purchase of Greenland. Independence was another possibility, although a small population, limited infrastructure, and a weak existing economy would complicate it. Denmark already supplied specialist patrol capacity through ships suited to the Arctic. Losing that contribution would give the United States another demanding task without an immediate replacement for those vessels.