A 40,000-ton ceiling could reduce incentives to cheat

Nelson and Rodney accepted sharp compromises to mount nine 16-inch guns within roughly 35,000 tons, including a concentrated forward battery and limited speed. In this counterfactual, about 40,000 tons could have produced well-rounded 28- or 29-knot ships for Britain, America, and Japan as machinery improved. Although existing infrastructure could support even larger capital ships, the extra displacement beyond a balanced design would yield a smaller marginal advantage. A satisfactory legal ship therefore changes the calculation from routine evasion to a much larger, more visible breach. By reducing the reward available from cheating, the treaty could make diplomatic exposure and possible conflict outweigh the military gain.