An acceptable point of divergence needs to expose shell failure early enough for reform before May 1916 and clearly enough to defeat institutional excuses. Dogger Bank is too late, while Heligoland Bight and the Falklands offer no damaged German capital ship that British specialists can closely inspect. The pursuit of Goeben and Breslau provides a stronger possibility because a damaged ship might seek safety in neutral Greece or Italy. The counterfactual therefore depends on both timing and the kind of physical evidence decision-makers could obtain.
Chapter · 32:35-36:24
Finding a plausible point of divergence before Jutland
Dogger Bank comes too late and the early North Sea victories leave no German capital ship to inspect, pushing the scenario toward the Mediterranean pursuit of Goeben and Breslau.