The counterfactual starts by changing the political choices that shaped the London naval settlement. A Conservative government remains in office and resists numerical limits on the heavy cruisers the Royal Navy wanted. A fleet requirement of around seventy cruisers demands a much larger cruiser tonnage allowance if each ship remains near 10,000 tons. The capital-ship settlement then becomes a choice between an improved 15-inch gun with strong logistical advantages and an improved 16-inch gun whose feasibility depends on the agreed tonnage ceiling. A somewhat higher ceiling also permits an all-forward twelve-gun option. Treaty limits can govern battery layout as well as calibre.
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An equitable London Treaty begins with cruiser numbers
An alternate 1930 treaty scenario starts from the Royal Navy's need for roughly seventy cruisers, then asks what tonnage and gun limits would make that fleet possible.