Why an early naval-treaty collapse would not hand the Axis parity

Would an earlier collapse of the interwar naval treaties have allowed the Axis powers to challenge Britain and the United States at sea?

It would create a dangerous building race, especially during Japan's short window of relative strength, but the Axis powers lacked the combined industrial depth to sustain parity with Britain and the United States.

Italy was already pressing against the limits of what its economy and industry could support. Germany first had to rebuild shipyards, personnel, and design institutions before a major fleet could emerge. Japan possessed a dangerous but narrow opportunity to exploit an approximate seventy-percent strength relationship before American construction overwhelmed it. Britain and the United States could ultimately outbuild all three, while a treaty-free 27,000-ton Ark Royal illustrates how even nominally constrained Allied designs could grow more capable.