How will drones and helicopters change land and naval air power, and will fighters again dominate as they did around 1940?
Short answerThe forecast is for crewed-uncrewed partnerships: helicopters could direct strike drones, while crewed warships and carriers could operate with groups of uncrewed vessels and aircraft.
NotesA fast crewed helicopter might control five to eight smaller rotary-wing strike drones instead of carrying out an Apache-style attack itself. At sea, each crewed ship could lead a group of uncrewed vessels and aviation assets, with carriers supporting larger mixed air groups. The forecast extends over twenty to thirty years, with its duration dependent on computing power and trust in autonomous systems. A direct transfer of lessons from Ukraine is questioned because opponents can adapt and the resources allocated to naval defence can differ. These are possible developments, with considerable uncertainty about the balance between human control and autonomy.