Notable Point · 1:35:49-1:41:31

Credible limits and continued modernization

The case for deterrence through perceived strength uses a schoolyard analogy to explain why an apparently capable opponent may discourage aggression.

Notes

The deterrence argument accepts disarmament as a sincere response to war's destruction but disputes the expectation that weakness can preserve peace. The maxim si vis pacem, para bellum expresses the alternative: preparing to resist an attack can help prevent one. A schoolyard analogy uses the appearance of strength to explain why a bully may avoid a target without a fight taking place. That analogy concerns governments' conduct rather than an inherent national character. Its application to the treaty is that signatories should retain enough capability to feel secure, with a 42,000-ton ceiling still giving disarmament advocates a limit they could defend.