Controlled naval competition as deterrence

The closing argument contrasts a treaty that halts construction with one that permits controlled competition inside agreed boundaries. Regular replacement could leave Britain with several postwar generations of fast, 16-inch-gun ships by the time Germany begins rebuilding. Scharnhorst and Bismarck would then face a modern battle fleet rather than a handful of new ships backed by First World War veterans. German planners would have to pursue an offset strategy or accept that direct naval competition looked implausible from the outset. Under this alternate-history deterrence argument, continued construction might advance technology and make British capacity unmistakable, though it cannot guarantee peace.