How coercion can drive neighboring states toward alliances

How should a great power interpret neighboring states seeking membership in an alliance it opposes?

It should examine why its neighbors want the alliance. Russian coercion and nuclear threats were making NATO protection more attractive to Sweden and Finland in February 2022.

Alliance choices respond to security incentives. Ukraine had shown stronger prewar interest in the European Union, while Russia's use of force and nuclear threats made NATO guarantees more attractive. During the opening days of the 2022 invasion, Sweden and Finland appeared likely to reconsider proud traditions of neutrality. Their membership would also strengthen the defense of the Baltic states. This contemporaneous analysis shows how coercion can produce the alignment it was meant to prevent.